# The Championships' Final


by @ulaulaman via @Airi\_Talk about #WorldCup2014 #Brazil2014 predictions: #ESP-#GER

**Jürgen Gerhards**, **Michael Mutz** and **Gert Wagner** developed an economic model in order to predict the results of the football team during the international cups. The researchers evaluated the market value of every player and described every team with an economic price: in this way they predict the winners in 2006 (World Cup: Italy), 2008 (Euro Cup: Spain), 2010 (WC: Spain), [2012](http://scienceguide.nl/print.aspx?id=25936) (EC: Spain). Starting from the previous results, the three researchers realized the board of the challenges from the eighth:

![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1743071212417/a422c95a-907b-491f-9550-53ec435d2429.jpeg)

The predicted final will be between **Spain** and **Germany**, with Spain favorite, but there is a little hope for the other teams, first of all **Brazil**: [in 2012 the model didn't predict the other team](http://scienceguide.nl/print.aspx?id=25936) in the final game of the Euro Cup: **Italy**, that should not have reached even into the semi-finals:

![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1743071213817/332228b8-c671-4ed5-bbb0-f77b0ea450e2.jpeg)

> Marketization and globalization have changed professional soccer and the composition of soccer teams fundamentally. Against the background of these shifting conditions this paper investigates the extent to which the success of soccer teams in their national leagues is determined by (a) the monetary value of the team expressed in its market value, (b) inequality within the team, (c) the cultural diversity of the team, and (d) the degree of turnover among team members. The empirical analyses refer to the soccer season 2012/13 and include the twelve most important European soccer leagues. The findings demonstrate that success in a national soccer championship is highly predictable; nearly all of our hypotheses are confirmed. The market value of the team is, in today's world, by far the most important single predictor of athletic success in professional soccer.

Jürgen Gerhards, Michael Mutz, Gert Wagner (2014). [Die Berechnung des Siegers: Marktwert, Ungleichheit, Diversität und Routine als Einflussfaktoren auf die Leistung professioneller Fußballteams](http://zfs-online.org/index.php/zfs/article/view/3170). _Zeitschrift für Soziologie_, Jg. 43, Heft 3, 231-250

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via [University of Berlin](http://www.fu-berlin.de/en/presse/informationen/fup/2014/fup_14_211-wm-prognose-gerhards-wagner-mutz/index.html), [galileonet.it](http://www.galileonet.it/articles/53982611a5717a103a000026), [airicerca.org](http://www.airicerca.org/notizie/chi-vincera-i-mondiali-di-calcio-2014/)